Author: Mark Siedle

The book called “Change: How to make big things happen” by Damon Centola, is a very insightful read, that challenges many of our assumptions about how change happens. It has been published in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, and while it is all about the science of networks and how things spread, it is not about disease, but more about change.

This is my summary of the ideas presented, answering the core question of “Why do some changes work and why do some changes fail?” Damon Centola is a university Professor, and a leading world expert on social networks and behaviour change. So, change through these social networks is his starting point.

Historically, most of us would think that change spreads like a virus. One person gets infected and passes to another. Depending on the reach of individuals, and the stickiness of the change, an individual could reach hundreds of others, and this is where ‘influencers’ have grown in popularity.

However, the problem with the virus-metaphor is that significant change requires you to change people’s beliefs and behaviours. When you are exposed to new behaviours, or to a new idea, you don’t automatically adopt it. You actually need to make a decision to ignore or adopt the new behaviour. These changes are called complex contagions, as against the virus which is a simple contagion. An example of a simple contagion would be a funny or clever video that goes viral, but that has no lasting impression on our lives. The ‘Black Lives Matter (BLM)’ movement is an example of a complex contagion, gaining legitimacy only in 2015, despite the #BlackLivesMatter having been used since about 2012. It was only in 2015 when the numerous groups that were in conversation about BLM really started conversing with each other. This is the concept that Damon Centola calls wide bridges. The are other principles that are also important, but let me explain wide bridges in a business.

Sales might be one group. Engineering might be another group. There are numerous conversations happening within these groups but limited cross-group communication. John, the engineer, having conversations with Jim in sales would be a narrow bridge. But where there are a number of conversations happening between the engineers and the individuals in sales, then you have wide bridges. It is the fact that you have these higher number of connections that builds redundancy into the process. John, the engineer, may not be able to get Jim in Sales to adopt an innovation that requires a behaviour change, but another engineer Jane may be able to influence Henry in Sales. And then Henry in Sales may be able in turn to influence Jim.

Another key insight is that the meaningful change starts on the periphery, in the ‘neighbourhoods’. It is also not immediately apparent what is happening, and for the change to become mainstream takes time. An interesting study was held in Malawi from 2010 and over 4 years, aiming to change crop planting techniques to one that was more sustainable and higher yielding. Detailed research of 200 villages was undertaken before the change was introduced. There were four different groups of 50 villages, each using a different mechanism of introducing the change. Not surprisingly the default influencer strategy finished last – what the government had used for years -, with the clear winner being the change mechanism that relied on the network architecture. Most success was achieved where the new and different planting technique not only started in a number of villages, on the periphery, but where their selected change-agents had shared contacts in common, a wide bridge. This strategy was not surprisingly called the snowball strategy. As a personal anecdote, a very learned boss of mine about 25 years ago talked about his ‘blue cheese’ model: to effect meaningful change, target the blue – ie: the early advocates – and let the change grow naturally supposedly like the mold in the cheese, the blue, grows over time. It sounds similar to this snowball strategy.

So, what does Damon Centola propose as strategies for change? There are seven useful strategies:

1. Don’t rely on contagiousness – significant changes do not spread like a virus

2. Protect the innovators – innovations that face entrenched opposition can work if the innovators have less exposure to the entire network. Target the clusters in the network periphery, where they can reinforce one another without being overwhelmed by countervailing influencers.

3. Use the network periphery – influencers can be a roadblock to change, being connected to large numbers of people conforming to the status quo. People in the periphery are less connected, and therefore less likely to be stopped by countervailing influences.

4. Establish wide bridges – redundancy is required between groups to establish trust, credibility, and legitimacy. This is the concept of wide bridges and facilitates behaviour change shifting from one group to another.

5. Create relevance – this relies on understanding the change: if proof is required, then similarities between adopters are key; if excitement needs to be generated, then similarity is again key; when legitimacy is required and the behaviour needs to be widely accepted, then diversity among groups is required.

6. Use the snowball strategy – target those special places in the network where you can create small pockets of legitimacy, where the early adopters can reinforce one another. To be effective, you firstly need to understand the network, and secondly also target groups which can bridge to other groups.

7. Design team networks to improve discovery and reduce bias – it is vital protect the innovators and early adopters from influences that reinforce the status quo.

If Damon Centola can find this evidence of how social change can happen, then surely businesses can tap in to this to create innovative businesses, and businesses that adapt regularly. Like social networks need to provide protection for the early adopters from the countervailing influences, can businesses provide protection for their own innovators, who possibly sit on the periphery of their organisational structure, from the blockers of change?

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#change #damoncentola #teamwork #innovators #changeprocess